Today’s analysis delivers a comprehensive overview of the gold markets, highlighting the key fundamental and technical factors influencing current trends. This report is designed to provide investors with the insights they need to make informed decisions in a dynamic market environment.
Gold prices extend their winning streak for a fourth consecutive session, reaching a nearly two-week high during Thursday’s Asian trading. The rally is fueled by renewed safe-haven demand following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating and rising concerns over the expanding U.S. deficit, partly attributed to former President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax reforms.
Adding to market unease are escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and broader geopolitical risks, which have dampened global risk appetite and boosted demand for gold. At the same time, the U.S. Dollar remains under pressure, hovering near a two-week low amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates further in 2025 due to easing inflation and slowing economic growth.
Weak demand at a 20-year U.S. bond auction has further underscored waning investor confidence in U.S. assets, intensifying selling pressure on the greenback and providing additional support for the non-yielding precious metal.
Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor the release of flash PMI data for insights into the global economic outlook. In the U.S., Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales data could also influence dollar sentiment and, by extension, gold price movements.
From a technical standpoint, XAU/USD appears to have established a foothold above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent pullback from the monthly high. This development follows a breakout earlier this week above the $3,250–$3,255 resistance zone, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
Daily chart indicators are gaining upward momentum, with both the RSI at 56 and the Stochastics Oscillator at 59, suggesting that the path of least resistance remains to the upside. This sets the stage for a potential advance toward the next key resistance area around $3,363–$3,365, with a further move toward the psychological $3,400 level looking increasingly plausible.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the $3,316–$3,315 zone—formerly resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci level—followed by the $3,300 handle. A deeper pullback could find renewed buying interest near $3,285, with strong support expected in the $3,250–$3,255 region, now turned into a key demand zone.
However, a decisive break below this area could trigger fresh technical selling, potentially dragging gold prices down toward the $3,200 level.
Stochastics Oscillator: A momentum indicator that compares the closing price to the price range over a specified period. Readings above 80 suggest overbought conditions, while readings below 20 indicate oversold levels.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Measures the speed and magnitude of recent price movements to assess potential overbought or oversold conditions. A value above 70 signals overbought territory; below 30 indicates oversold.
In the dynamic and constantly shifting bullion market, staying updated with both technical and fundamental analysis is essential for sound investment decisions. This report aims to offer a well-rounded perspective to help investors effectively navigate the complexities of gold trading.